Each quarter, we provide the latest market and economic updates, valuable planning insights, and other relevant information to help you stay informed.
Data Monitor
Inflation
Consumer price inflation has moderated further, with core inflation recently hitting 2.5% YoY as of February 2026 after falling consistently since the middle of 2022.1 Inflation has been a key concern for the markets and the Federal Reserve, so the continued drop is welcome news. However, the recent roughly 40% rise in oil prices since the Iran invasion has lifted forward looking inflation expectations somewhat and we remain vigilant about inflation risks stemming from this.2
1Bureau of Economic Analysis as of 2/28/2026
2LSEG, as of 3/17/2026
Growth
Economic growth has remained on a solid trajectory with the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast estimating 1Q26 GDP to come in at 2.7%.3 AI investment continues to be a large driver of incremental growth, which we expect to continue for the foreseeable future. A sustained energy shock may generally put downward pressure on growth and squeeze corporate profit margins, particularly outside of the US.
3Federal Reserve as of 3/16/2026
Monetary Policy
The Fed has entered a wait and see mode, with the market not expecting further interest rate cuts until at least June. The new Fed Chairman will start his role in May, and we believe the Fed will be weighing the state of the labor market and inflation (particularly energy inflation) to determine the future path of rates. We expect the Fed to cut rates once in 2026, with the range of potential moves ranging from zero cuts to two cuts.
Jobs
Though job growth has slowed considerably over the last 12–18 months, the unemployment rate remains at just 4.4%.4 The slowdown in job growth is driven by fewer workers entering the labor market due to demographic trends, as well as slower immigration. Indeed, according to the Atlanta Fed, the net number of jobs that need to be created each month to keep the unemployment rate below 4.5% is estimated to be in the 25,000–50,000 range—well below the levels of job creation seen from 2020 to 2024.5
4BLS as of 2/28/2026
5Federal Reserve as of 3/16/2026
Market & Economic Update
What has our attention?
The recent Iran war is shaping up to create possibly one of the largest energy shocks in the last 100 years, with the Straight of Hormuz all but closed to oil throughput that feeds the economies of Asia and Europe. The bottleneck created is likely to take months to resolve, even after fighting ceases. Since the war started, oil prices have risen to >$100, but importantly treasury yields have also risen from sub 4% to 4.23% as of 3/17/2026. This is important because US housing activity (refis, pending home sales, etc.) had started to increase ahead of the Spring selling season, but have since faded. We are hopeful that once energy prices return to normal, the modest recovery we had started to see in housing continues.
What does this mean for portfolios?
Equity and fixed income markets are vulnerable to large swings in energy prices. In turbulent times such as this, we take a keen eye on risk management. Over the last several weeks we have made trades in client portfolios to manage risk and rotate into areas that may be less affected by rising energy prices. We’ll continue to attempt to manage the downside while looking for opportunities to grow capital over time.
Financial Planning Insights
Turning Your Tax Return Into a Planning Tool
As we move through tax season, many of you are either finalizing your returns or have already filed. While it may feel like the finish line, your tax return is actually one of the most valuable planning tools we have to support your financial strategy.
More Than Just Filing — It’s a Planning Opportunity
Your tax return provides a comprehensive snapshot of your financial life in a given year. It helps us identify:
- Opportunities to improve tax efficiency
- Changes in income, deductions, or investments
- Potential planning strategies for the year ahead
- Areas where coordination with your CPA or other advisors may be beneficial
Even small details can uncover meaningful opportunities—whether it’s optimizing investment decisions, evaluating Roth conversions, or identifying ways to reduce future tax liability.
Why Timing Matters
Reviewing your tax return sooner rather than later allows us to:
- Be proactive instead of reactive
- Implement strategies early in the year
- Coordinate more effectively with your broader financial picture
Waiting too long can limit available options—especially for strategies that are time-sensitive.
How to Share Your Tax Documents Securely
To make this process simple and secure, we encourage clients to send their tax returns through our secure client portal.
If you experience trouble logging in or don’t have a client portal, please email Roxy at rborquez@meridianwealthllc.com.
Tax Deadline Reminder: Last-Minute Planning Opportunities
As the tax filing deadline approaches, there may still be time to take advantage of a few key planning opportunities for the prior year.
For most taxpayers, the deadline to file and make certain contributions for the 2025 tax year is April 15, 2026.
Depending on your situation, consider:
- Traditional IRA contributions (which may be tax-deductible)
- Roth IRA contributions (subject to income limits)
- Backdoor Roth contributions for higher-income households
- HSA contributions (if eligible), offering triple tax advantages
- SEP-IRA or Solo 401(k) contributions for business owners (some may extend with a filing extension)
These strategies can have a meaningful impact on your current and future tax picture—but they are time-sensitive and must be completed by the applicable deadlines.
If you’re unsure whether any of these apply to you, we’re happy to help evaluate your options before the window closes.
SWG Team Updates
Connecting in Person: Client Appreciation Luncheons
It was truly a pleasure to see so many familiar faces last week during our Client Appreciation Luncheons. We had a fantastic turnout at Hacienda Del Sol in Tucson, followed by a wonderful afternoon at Maggiano’s Little Italy in Scottsdale.
These events are a highlight of our year because they allow us to step away from the screens and spreadsheets to connect with you personally. It was also a great opportunity for many of you to meet the rest of our dedicated team members who work tirelessly behind the scenes.
Our program this year focused on navigating both the “big picture” and the personal impact of your financial strategy:
- Giving Strategies: We explored the practical benefits of using Donor-Advised Funds (DAFs) with Shawn Best and Laura Maher-Forzst from the Community Foundation for Southern Arizona, to maximize the impact of your charitable goals while optimizing tax efficiency.
- Geopolitical Outlook: Bob Bush and Bruce Ward provided a deep dive into the current global landscape and how international shifts are shaping the world around us.
- Economic & Market Insights: Eric Bush and Bryce Coward shared their latest analysis on market trends and the broader economic trajectory for the remainder of 2026.
- Thank you to everyone who took the time to join us. We always leave these events feeling energized by your partnership and trust.
If you weren’t able to make it this time, we missed you and look forward to seeing everyone again next year!
Team Update: A Heartfelt Farewell to Jessica
We have some bittersweet news to share regarding our Tucson-based team. After years of being a cornerstone of our office, Jessica decided a few weeks ago to transition away from her professional role to focus on her family and spend her days full-time with her newborn son.
At our firm, we have always viewed our team not just as colleagues, but as a family. Jessica has been an essential part of that family, instrumental to our collective success and a familiar, caring voice for so many of you. While it is a significant loss for us professionally, we are wholeheartedly in support of her decision. We believe there is no higher calling than being present during these fleeting, critical moments of a first child’s early life.
Because we care deeply about the continuity of your experience, we have been thoughtfully preparing for this transition for several months. We have already taken steps to redistribute her responsibilities among the team to ensure that the high level of service you expect remains uninterrupted.
We invite you to join us in wishing Jessica and her growing family nothing but the very best in this exciting new chapter.
If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to Bruce Ward or Roxy Borquez.
Advisory services offered through Meridian Wealth Management, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor. Insurance Services offered through Meridian Insurance, LLC. The Strategic Wealth Group is a team of Investment Advisor Representatives and Insurance Agents appropriately registered and operating through Meridian Wealth Management, LLC to conduct investment advisory business and Meridian Insurance, LLC, respectively. The information and opinions voiced in this material are strictly for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase, offer or sell any securities. Seek specific tax, legal, insurance, and investment advice from a licensed professional relative to your situation. Any views or opinions presented in this material are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Meridian Wealth Management, LLC.
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