Each quarter, we provide the latest market and economic updates, valuable planning insights, and other relevant information to help you stay informed.
Data Monitor
Inflation
Consumer price inflation has moderated further, with core inflation recently hitting 2.6% year-over-year as of November 2025, after falling consistently since the middle of 2022. Inflation has been a key concern for markets and the Federal Reserve, so the continued drop is welcome news.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, 11/30/2025
Growth
Economic growth is running at a solid rate of roughly 3%, and some forecasters are expecting a slight uptick in 2026. Less uncertainty around tariff policy, combined with a more accommodative tax policy (tax refunds are expected to be $1,000 more per individual in 2026 vs. 2025), may continue to support growth in 2026. Additionally, we are hopeful that the housing sector will reaccelerate on the back of less restrictive mortgage rates.
Source: Federal Reserve, 12/18/2025
Monetary Policy
The Fed continued easing policy with another rate cut in December. Going forward, the Fed signaled a slow pace of rate reductions, with only one more 0.25% rate cut in 2026 and an emphasis on data dependency. All things equal, a slower rate of inflation (as seen in the November reading) may enable the Fed to take a more accommodative policy stance in 2026 than what is currently priced into the market.
Source: Federal Reserve, 12/10/2025
Jobs
The labor market has slowed considerably throughout 2025, with the unemployment rate hitting 4.6% as of November 2025. The softness in hiring, while not met by significant realized job losses or layoffs, may pose a risk to economic growth in 2026 and may keep the Fed “in play” as the balance of risks (at least in the eyes of the Fed) shifts from inflation to employment. Less policy uncertainty may support a somewhat stronger labor market in the coming quarters.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 11/30/2025
Market & Economic Update
What has our attention?
We are living in what may be regarded as a two-speed economy, with certain segments doing just fine and others struggling to make ends meet. One way to visualize this is by comparing delinquency rates on credit cards versus mortgages. Credit card delinquencies are at the highest level since 2010, while mortgage delinquencies are near generational lows.
This is concerning because these data suggest the wealth divide between the top and bottom halves may be getting wider. A soft labor market and rising inflation may be playing a role in rising credit card delinquencies, and the low level of mortgage delinquencies suggests that asset owners may not be experiencing the same challenges as a whole.
What does this mean for portfolios?
A widening gap in income and wealth between the bottom half of income levels and the top half is nothing new to the U.S. economy, but it does raise the specter of political instability and a desire for change. As we enter an important mid-term election year, we’ll be keeping an eye on factors like rising income inequality, consumer confidence, inflation, and the job market to help us determine the likelihood of political change and the impact that may have on client portfolios.
Financial Planning Corner
Several tax and retirement plan updates take effect in 2026, including higher contribution limits, updated catch-up rules, and new or expanded deductions. Below is a summary of the key numbers and planning items for the year ahead.
Retirement Plan Contribution Limits
- 2026 limit: $24,500
- 2026 catch-up (age 50+): $8,000
- 2026 catch-up (age 60–63): $11,250
IRA Limits
- IRA contribution: $7,500
- Age 50+ IRA catch-up: $1,100
HSA Contribution Limits
- Self-only: $4,400
- Family: $8,750
- Catch-up (age 55+): $1,000
Roth Catch-Up Rule (Effective 2026)
- Mandatory Roth catch-up for high earners
- Applies to participants age 50+
- 2025 FICA wages above $150,000
- All catch-up contributions must be Roth, not pre-tax
New Above-the-Line Deduction for Non-Itemizers
- Non-itemizers may deduct up to $1,000 ($2,000 MFJ) for cash donations starting in 2026
- Itemized charitable deductions capped at 35% for those in the top bracket
- Additionally, itemizers can only deduct contributions above a floor of 0.5% of AGI
These 2026 updates may affect retirement savings strategies, tax planning, payroll decisions, and overall financial planning. For help reviewing your 2026 options or updating your plan, please contact your Meridian SWG advisory team.
SWG Team Updates
Congratulations, Jessica!
We’re delighted to announce that Jessica and her husband, Jerico, welcomed their beautiful baby boy, Micah, on November 11th. Micah is healthy, happy, and already so loved. Mom is recovering well, and the family can’t wait to spend the holidays soaking up newborn snuggles. Please join us in congratulating Jessica and Jerico!
SWG Team Volunteer Day: Making a Global Impact
On October 29th, our SWG team came together to volunteer at Feed My Starving Children, and it was truly a meaningful experience for everyone involved.
Working side by side, we packed 264 boxes, which will provide 57,024 meals — each one specially formulated to help combat severe undernutrition in developing regions.
These meals will soon reach children around the world who need them most, offering not just nourishment, but hope. We are deeply proud to support an organization whose mission makes such a lasting impact on vulnerable communities. It was a privilege for our team to play a small part in this important work.
To close out the session, David Lundgren from our Scottsdale office offered a heartfelt prayer, bringing a thoughtful and uplifting end to a day of service and teamwork.
Roxy Joins the 3rd Annual El Tour de Tucson 5K
We’re thrilled to share that Roxy participated for the first time in the 3rd Annual El Tour de Tucson 5K.
This race was particularly meaningful as the route carried her back through the neighborhoods where Roxy and her brother used to walk to school, making the experience even more special.
This run is part of the iconic El Tour de Tucson cycling festival — one of the largest and most celebrated bicycling events in the nation. With thousands of participants from all over the country and beyond, beginning and finishing in the heart of Tucson, the atmosphere was electric.
Happy Holidays from SWG!
We’re truly grateful for the trust you place in us and the opportunity to work together. We look forward to continuing our partnership in the year ahead. Wishing you and your loved ones a joyful holiday season!
Advisory services offered through Meridian Wealth Management, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor. Insurance Services offered through Meridian Insurance, LLC. The Strategic Wealth Group is a team of Investment Advisor Representatives and Insurance Agents appropriately registered and operating through Meridian Wealth Management, LLC to conduct investment advisory business and Meridian Insurance, LLC, respectively. The information and opinions voiced in this material are strictly for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation to purchase, offer or sell any securities. Seek specific tax, legal, insurance, and investment advice from a licensed professional relative to your situation. Any views or opinions presented in this material are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of Meridian Wealth Management, LLC.
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